The Pirates are now 128 games into the 162-game season. What should we expect for the rest of the season?
Since the All-Star Break, the Pirates are 20-18 or .526, so it’s clear that their play has improved substantially from the beginning of the season. Still, their poor record prior to the All-Star Break (30-60; .333) will keep them out of the post-season for yet another year. With the Wild Card all but out of reach, what can we hope for from this season? Based on the fact that the Pirates’ cumulative record for the year is 50-78 with 34 games remaining, here is a summary of some possible outcomes, from best to worst.
If the Pirates:
- win all of their remaining 34 games, they will finish at 84-78 (.519)
- only lose 3 of their remaining games, they finish at 81-81 (.500)
- win 15 of their remaining games, they finish above .400 (65-97)
- win at least 13 of their remaining games, they avoid a 100-loss season
- lose all of their remaining games, they finish at 50-112 (.309), to tie the 1952 Pirates for 2nd place in most losses in a season for the franchise. The 1952 Pirates lost 112 games in a season of only 154 games for a win percentage of .273. First place goes to the 1890 Pirates, who lost 113 games in a season that was only 136 games long, for a win percentage of .169.
I don’t think that options 1, 2, or 5 are at all likely. Given their recent play, I think that both 3 and 4 are attainable. In fact, I expect the Pirates to win at least half of their remaining games, which would exceed both outcomes 3 and 4. Unfortunately, at this point, having a season like that of the 1909 Pirates is out of reach for this year. However, perhaps the Pirates will be able to turn it around next year and replicate the .724 win percentage the 1909 Pirates recorded on their way to their first World Championship.
[Insert Witty Title Here] 
I like how none of your options are based on what’s already happened. Here are a couple of my options to give a feel of what’s probable:
1. Keep winning at their post All-Star-Break percentage of .526 (final 68-94 ,.419).
2. Stay at their current win percentage of .391 (63-99).
I’m going to put my money on somewhere in between those. I’ll say 66-96 (.407), winning 18 of their last 34.
I guess my enumerated outcomes were mostly looking at various possible numerical milestones they could reach rather than any kind of extrapolation. I was going to include your #1, but I decided against it for some reason. Also, I did include your #2 – it’s basically #4, just in different words. I more or less agree with your prediction, though there’s an error in your math. They’ve won 50 so far, so an additional 18 leaves them at 68, not 66. I expect them to win in the neighborhood of 17 (which is half of their remaining games) give or take 1 or 2. Either way, I expect them to finish above .400 and avoid a 100-loss season.
Yeah, winning 16 of their last 34 mine should have read.
Yeah.
I think there might be some interesting numerical analysis to be done on the Pirates’ record as it has evolved over the course of the season. There’s a definite upward trend amid the noise. If anyone is interested, here’s the data you’ll need in a convenient tab-delimited format:
1 MIL L 0.000
2 MIL L 0.000
3 MIL L 0.000
4 CIN L 0.000
5 CIN L 0.000
6 CIN L 0.000
7 CIN W 0.143
8 LAD L 0.125
9 LAD W 0.222
10 LAD W 0.300
11 LAD L 0.273
12 CHC L 0.250
13 CHC W 0.308
14 CHC L 0.286
15 STL L 0.267
16 STL W 0.313
17 STL L 0.294
18 HOU L 0.278
19 HOU L 0.263
20 HOU L 0.250
21 STL L 0.238
22 STL L 0.227
23 STL L 0.217
24 PHI W 0.250
25 PHI W 0.280
26 PHI L 0.269
27 CHC L 0.259
28 CHC W 0.286
29 NYM L 0.276
30 NYM L 0.267
31 WSH L 0.258
32 WSH W 0.281
33 WSH L 0.273
34 ARI W 0.294
35 ARI L 0.286
36 FLA W 0.306
37 FLA L 0.297
38 FLA L 0.289
39 CIN W 0.308
40 CIN W 0.325
41 CIN L 0.317
42 CLE L 0.310
43 CLE W 0.326
44 CLE L 0.318
45 ARI L 0.311
46 ARI L 0.304
47 ARI L 0.298
48 HOU W 0.313
49 HOU W 0.327
50 HOU L 0.320
51 MIL W 0.333
52 MIL W 0.346
53 MIL W 0.358
54 MIL W 0.370
55 SD L 0.364
56 SD W 0.375
57 SD L 0.368
58 COL W 0.379
59 COL L 0.373
60 COL L 0.367
61 SF L 0.361
62 SF W 0.371
63 SF W 0.381
64 SF W 0.391
65 STL L 0.385
66 STL W 0.394
67 STL L 0.388
68 MIN L 0.382
69 MIN L 0.377
70 MIN L 0.371
71 ARI L 0.366
72 KC L 0.361
73 KC L 0.356
74 KC L 0.351
75 LAD L 0.347
76 LAD L 0.342
77 LAD L 0.338
78 CWS L 0.333
79 CWS L 0.329
80 CWS W 0.338
81 DET L 0.333
82 DET W 0.341
83 DET L 0.337
84 NYM W 0.345
85 NYM L 0.341
86 NYM L 0.337
87 NYM L 0.333
88 PHI W 0.341
89 PHI L 0.337
90 PHI L 0.333
91 WSH W 0.341
92 WSH W 0.348
93 WSH L 0.344
94 COL W 0.351
95 COL L 0.347
96 COL W 0.354
97 FLA W 0.361
98 FLA L 0.357
99 FLA L 0.354
100 FLA L 0.350
101 MIL L 0.347
102 MIL W 0.353
103 MIL W 0.359
104 SF W 0.365
105 SF W 0.371
106 SF W 0.377
107 ATL L 0.374
108 ATL L 0.370
109 ATL W 0.376
110 CHC W 0.382
111 CHC L 0.378
112 CHC L 0.375
113 HOU L 0.372
114 HOU L 0.368
115 HOU L 0.365
116 STL W 0.371
117 STL W 0.376
118 STL W 0.381
119 MIL W 0.387
120 MIL L 0.383
121 MIL L 0.380
122 CIN W 0.385
123 CIN L 0.382
124 CIN L 0.379
125 ATL L 0.376
126 ATL W 0.381
127 ATL W 0.386
128 HOU W 0.391
129 HOU L 0.388
If any of you take a look and try some regression or extrapolation, please share your results.
Which was the first game after the all-star break?
Game 91, against the Washington Nationals.