Archive for August 25th, 2006

25
Aug
06

Pirates: What will become of the season?

The Pirates are now 128 games into the 162-game season.  What should we expect for the rest of the season?

Since the All-Star Break, the Pirates are 20-18 or .526, so it’s clear that their play has improved substantially from the beginning of the season.  Still, their poor record prior to the All-Star Break (30-60; .333) will keep them out of the post-season for yet another year.  With the Wild Card all but out of reach, what can we hope for from this season?  Based on the fact that the Pirates’ cumulative record for the year is 50-78 with 34 games remaining, here is a summary of some possible outcomes, from best to worst.

If the Pirates:

  1. win all of their remaining 34 games, they will finish at 84-78 (.519)
  2. only lose 3 of their remaining games, they finish at 81-81 (.500)
  3. win 15 of their remaining games, they finish above .400 (65-97)
  4. win at least 13 of their remaining games, they avoid a 100-loss season
  5. lose all of their remaining games, they finish at 50-112 (.309), to tie the 1952 Pirates for 2nd place in most losses in a season for the franchise.  The 1952 Pirates lost 112 games in a season of only 154 games for a win percentage of .273.  First place goes to the 1890 Pirates, who lost 113 games in a season that was only 136 games long, for a win percentage of .169.

I don’t think that options 1, 2, or 5 are at all likely.  Given their recent play, I think that both 3 and 4 are attainable.  In fact, I expect the Pirates to win at least half of their remaining games, which would exceed both outcomes 3 and 4.  Unfortunately, at this point, having a season like that of the 1909 Pirates is out of reach for this year.  However, perhaps the Pirates will be able to turn it around next year and replicate the .724 win percentage the 1909 Pirates recorded on their way to their first World Championship.




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